Applying Big Data Sentiment Analysis to Donald Trump

At Social Market Analytics we specialize in sentiment for capital markets.  However, our technology can be leveraged in many areas of sentiment.  As we expand our capabilities to look at other topics I thought it would be interesting to open up the fire hose to the full Twitter universe and capture sentiment on the current conversation about candidates and issues – boy is it!   With the upcoming debate and Iowa Caucuses we are getting a lot of good stuff on the political landscape.

Donald Trump skipping the debate is bringing strong reaction.  Sentiment for Trump the candidate has dropped quickly over the last 24 hours since he announced he wasn’t participating in the debate and his ongoing feud with Fox News.

The chart below illustrates the real-time tone of the conversation and the change of sentiment over the last 24 hours (4:00pm central 1/27/2016)  for Donald Trump as calculated by our engine.  The Yellow decreasing line represents the falling sentiment for Donald Trump and the red line illustrates the conversation is overall negative over the last 24 hours.

This is early data from our expanding capability to look at other topics, I  thought our readers would find it interesting.   To learn more about our capabilities please contact Social Market Analytics at ContactUs@SocialMarketAnalytics.com.

Keep in mind this is over the last 24 hours and will definitely change so stay tuned!!!

trump sentiment

 

Thanks,

Joe

 

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Crude Oil and StockTwits Sentiment

Written By Aditya Sharma:

The recent market downturn has illustrated the impact oil price changes can have on equity markets. Crude has been trending lower since late 2014, so much so that many major oil producing countries are selling it at a loss.  Using the conversations on the StockTwits Platform and SMA’s patented sentiment calculation technology we have identified an interesting connection between sentiment and subsequent changes in the front month Crude contracts over the last year.

The chart below demonstrates the daily price changes in the Crude Oil prices ($/barrel) overlaid with the sentiment levels as computed by SMA metrics before the US market opened (6:10 AM Eastern).  The sample period was all of 2015

If Crude sentiment is positive at 6:10am Eastern Time, 79.02% of the time, the price of front month crude contracts will trade higher than the prior days close over the next two days.  If sentiment is negative Crude will trade lower than the prior days close at some point over the next two days.

Thus, using StockTwits based SMA sentiment in your crude trading decision process can provide you with a meaningful directional edge! CrudeOil

2015 In Review

Wow, what a ride 2015 was with the S&P 500 closing slightly down for the year.  As we head into 2016 are you going to continue to look at the same factors as everyone else or maybe try something new?

Below are the returns for stocks with significantly positive and negative pre-market open S-Scores.   Stocks with High pre-market open sentiment scores had a cumulative return of 12.19% versus an SP 500 open to close return of -.38%.  Stocks with a low pre-market open sentiment score had a cumulative open to close performance of -34%.  Stocks with high sentiment scores outperformed and stocks with low sentiment scores under-performed.  With significant Sharpes and Sortinos.  Combining S-Factors with your selection criteria and risk management can add a dynamic new factor to your security selection.

These charts use the S-Factor S-Score.  SMA publishes and family of S-Factors  to clearly identify the tone of the social media conversation.  To learn more go to: https://socialmarketanalytics.com/process.

returns2015

 

Returns2015Tables

Returns2015FullHistory

Returns2015FullHistoryTable

Social Market Analytics has been publishing the performance characteristics of stocks with high and low sentiment over the last four years.  Last year it was difficult to find success with traditional factors.  SMA S-Factors helped our customers generate out-performance.   Please contact Social Market Analytics to explore how sentiment based factors can be included in your models: ContactUs@SocialMarketAnalytics.com.