SMA Predicts Brexit Two Weeks Before The Vote

People seem surprised that Britain voted to exit the EU.  We at SMA with our partners the CBOE are not nearly as surprised as everyone else.  Russell Rhoads from the CBOE has been blogging and Tweeting with SMA data for two weeks that it looks like the Brexit is going to happen.  Let’s look at the timeline.  Again, this is not a post analysis, these Tweets were out there 2 weeks ago!

Brexit Post on June 8, 2016:

Russell Rhoads, from CBOE wrote a blog about Brexit using the using SSE, the results indicated that an Exit is going to be the result of the vote.

Brexit1

The update from our partners at CBOE talked about the huge increase in Twitter volume about #brexit. One of the key observations was the #VoteLeave campaign had gained far more popularity than the remain campaign. To everyone who was looking, Twitter had shown the signs of a British Exit.

Brexit2

The final post on June 22 talked about strong social media indicators towards the exit. The #VoteLeave campaign has dwarfed the conversations of every other opinion, including the BBC debate. The prediction turned out to be true.

Brexit3

Twitter is the premier leading source of information and SMA can help you make sense of it.  Please contact SMA for more information at contactus@socialmarketanalytics.com

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2 thoughts on “SMA Predicts Brexit Two Weeks Before The Vote

  1. This is really interesting. Can you weight the data to represent a wider population (i.e. do you have access to demographic data)? I’m kind of surprised that given how the divide was so driven by demographics (and the leave demographic is less likely to be on twitter), that this came through on Twitter without weighting.

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  2. Hi Nicki, SMA is source agnostic. We can break down the social media data by demographics and also bring in additional data sets on a topic model. Best, Doug

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