Cboe – SMA Large Cap Weekly Index continues to outperform in Volatile Market

Social Market Analytics, Inc. (SMA) partnered with the Cboe in January 2017 to release the SMLCW Index ‘Cboe – SMA Large Cap Weekly Index’. The SMLCW Index is a Long Only Index that has outperformed since it was released and has continues to outperform in the recent market volatility and sell-off. In the chart below the S&P500 is flat for the year and SMLCW is up nearly 5% YTD.

SMA has two U.S. Patents around its machine learning and NLP processes that produce predictive analytics at the security level across U.S. and UK stocks, ETFs, FX, Futures, and Crypto Currencies

The SMLCW portfolio is an equally-weighted Long Only portfolio of 25 stocks drawn from the CBOE Large-Cap Universe with the highest average 5-period S-Scores. Stocks in this universe (a) are in the top 15% capitalization tranche of stocks that are the underlying for options listed on the CBOE (approximately 3000 stocks) and (b) have a market capitalization greater than or equal to $10 billion.

SMLCW YTD

The CBOE Large-Cap Universe is reconstituted quarterly on the third Friday of the month. The SMLCW portfolio is reconstituted every Friday at 8:30 am CT, based on average 5-period SMA S-Scores at 8:10 am CT. A period is a date on which there is sufficient social media data to derive SMA S-Scores. Stocks are deemed sold and purchased at market-on-open prices. The portfolio is held until 8:30 am CT on the next Friday. If Friday is a business holiday, the portfolio is rebalanced on the preceding Thursday.

To learn more, visit SMA at www.socialmarketanalytics.com or the Cboe website at http://www.cboe.com/products/social-media-indexes

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Social Market Analytics Receives Second Patent

Most of my blogs center around the predictive nature of Social Market Analytics data. This blog is different.  At Social Market Analytics we are continuously expanding and improving our technology.  These innovations sometime lead to such unique technology that a patent application is warranted.  As many of you know this is a lengthy and challenging process.  We are proud to announce SMA recently received our second patent as an extension of our original patent.  SMA now has two granted U.S. Patents.

Patent

Our first Patent was on our three-component system for extraction, evaluation and publication of metrics on social media feeds. The high-level diagram with Twitter as an input is below.

process

Each process above uses SMA created technology.  Extractor allows for the rapid ingestion of data.  Evaluator filters noise on both the author and content level and Calculator creates custom predictive metrics for multiple time frames and purposes.  As our processes evolve we apply for patents to protect this unique technology.  Our second granted U.S. Patent revolves around publication of metrics and alerting customers to breaking information available through our Twitter metrics and other sources. Although, we are exciting about our 2nd U.S. Patents, we already have our 3rd patent application in preparation!

Thanks for reading,

Joe

 

Predicting LSE Security Price Movements with Twitter Sentiment

Social Market Analytics, Inc. (SMA) aggregates the intentions of professional investors as expressed on Twitter & StockTwits and publishes a series of metrics that describes the current conversation relative to historical benchmarks.  Our data is a leading indicator of price movement both positive and negative.

There is unique predictive information in unstructured content.  Social Market Analytics use AI and Machine Learning techniques developed over the last eight years to convert this unstructured content into data suitable for quantitative analysis. This opens a whole new area of big data analysis.

Social Market Analytics (SMA) calculates predictive sentiment on the entire US equity universe, Currencies, Commodities, Crypto currencies, ETF’s and custom sources.   This blog is about the predictive nature of our LSE security universe.  We calculate our custom metrics on the top 1000 market cap securities listed on the LSE.  Our LSE data starts on 1/1/2016. Below is a cumulative quintile distribution of returns based on our S-Score metrics.  Our S-Score is effectively a Z-Score comparing 24-hour sentiment based on the Tweets of professional investors compared to a 20-day baseline.   Prediction periods vary per asset class and baseline. Longer baseline comparisons lead to longer prediction periods.

Stocks with abnormally positive conversations typically outperform their peers and stocks with abnormally negative conversations typically underperform their peers.  As expected conversations with normal positive or negative tones perform like the overall market.

Below is a typical quintile chart for the LSE 1000 universe tracked from post Brexit to 8/31/2018. The spread between the top and bottom quintiles is 10% annualized.   Sharpe and Sortino ratios are in the table below that.  To learn more or request a historical data set contact SMA with any questions ContactUS@SocialMarketAnalytics.com

LSEQuintiles 1

LSE Quintiles2